I recently read a blog post "Is the cashbackforexpipcalculator always right? Th cashback forex calculator Onl cashbackforexcalculatorOnlinee year I began to contact many fundamentalist researchers cashbackforexprofitcalculator analysts, of course, my purpose is cashback forex to make myself an expert in fundamental research, I am hoping to explore an effective combination of fundamental analysis and technical analysis of the operating model I have been doing technical analysis research for many years, until recent years, I Only in recent years, I felt the power of technical analysis of the logical derivation of the role in the operation, before many years of groping are very stereotypical of a K-line, a pattern, a mean alone out, the technical school can gush to analyze, but put into the dynamic chart, like a drop of water into the ocean is generally small, before any analysis for this drop of water at this time has become particularly insignificant The technical school is actually trading in the uncertain future, while the fundamentalist is trading in the certain future, of course, this certainty is still relatively certain may think that the future is uncertain, the fundamentalist future is also uncertain I a technical analysis will never go to blindly exaggerate the power of fundamental analysis, but through some friction with fundamental researchers, I can generally I can conclude that my view on the fundamentalist trading is a deterministic future is not wrong, just to be more precise, should be added in front of the top three words only the top fundamentalists have this level and ability, they are trading is a deterministic future forex fundamental analysis www.waihuibang.com/ fxschool/fundamental/foreign exchange technical analysis www.waihuibang.com/fxschool/technical/, I am a little bit of a voice technical analysis is based on the Dow Theory, the core is to follow the market trend, no matter which A model of trading trend trading, swing trading, short term trading, intraday trading (high frequency trading I do not understand, so I can not comment), if it is a model to make money, there are trends to follow this core in the so-called trend following is actually based on the present, and the future is not directly related, if you must be involved, it is to predict the future good, technical analysis is based on the present to predict the future assumptions The premise is that the trend will continue, the trend is not just turn around, the trend is the need for power to change, so we can predict the future trend according to the current trend structure, we decide the direction of our positions based on this forecast but we know very well in our hearts that the opposite will happen, the trend is impossible to continue forever, the trend is bound to change, so we are in such On the basis of two completely opposite logical thinking, designed based on the trend of the moment to decide the direction, follow the trend direction to trade, but if the forecast error occurs, then stop loss, the trend direction changes, then reverse the operation of this type of mode of operation no matter which operating style of traders, as long as it is based on technical analysis, there is no escape from this model to admit the forecast is the same as admitting the uncertainty, which also determines the technical Analysis of the future of trading is always uncertain, but also because of the uncertainty, so we need to stop loss next to say that the fundamental analysis of most of the professional researchers in the market they do research work are similar, the domestic Chinese head of the companys researchers I also contacted a lot, the balance sheet is their research tools researchers through the balance sheet or other tables to derive the direction of future price runs I used to I used to not understand the balance sheet, but now I can understand some of the balance sheet is also based on data to predict the future I once had this conversation with our researcher in a seminar, I asked: how did this 15/16 area, yield data? I asked, "How did you get the 15/16 area and yield data? So its possible that this data is not accurate? Yes, but they will gradually adjust this data, which means that the next time you see the balance sheet, this data may be higher or lower than this? Yes…………… see? After understanding the logical thinking system and research framework structure of fundamental analysis, I concluded that there is no difference between such fundamental research and technical analysis research, they are only predicting the future. The future, that there is uncertainty, it can not say which method based on the research conclusions more bullish X This also basically explains why many fundamental research gurus will also be wrong direction, it is because such a fundamental research system in the end is also a forecast of the future, since it is a forecast, of course, will be measured wrong in the system of technical analysis, the whole process of operation based on the trading system, forecast this The technical analysis system, the whole process of operation based on the trading system, the forecast factor accounted for a very small weight, so the technical analysis of the forecast error will not bring too much damage to the transaction, the forecast right will not bring too much benefit to the transaction, technical analysis can ultimately make money based on the forecast right or wrong, but lies in the art of processing; However, the fundamental trading system, the direction of the forecast factor accounted for a very large weight, I contacted several fundamental This also explains why the fundamentalist money curve will have great fluctuations, that is to say, once the fundamentalist prediction is wrong, the result of the transaction will be disastrous, the prediction is right will also make a lot of money from such a perspective, I prefer technical analysis, the reason is simple: I can accept to be wrong, but can not accept to lose a lot of money someone told me: when the fundamental and technical I was told that when the fundamentals and technicals resonate and then enter the trade, it is a definite opportunity. Then lets analyze whether this logic is correct or not. The technical school will predict the future price trend based on a certain pattern, such as a head and shoulders pattern, which has a higher probability of going up. Through the supply and demand data also predicted a direction, is also up, alone from the fundamental analysis of the conclusion of this study, also can not guarantee 100% is right, also have the possibility of error, we assume that the probability of success for 80% well, the two together will never be more than 80% probability of success, compared to the use of technical analysis alone, is only to improve the success rate of 10% only, and, into the field The basis for exit is still based on technical signals, so what role does the conclusion of fundamental analysis play in this transaction? If the result of the trade falls in the 20% area of failure, the same is finished. Therefore, the argument that fundamental and technical resonance is just a comfort to the psychology of traders. Because, bull X fundamental analysis is simply not the path of most researchers we trade futures are forward contracts, and the market really only one delivery of the price of that price before delivery, the price can deviate far from the actual price of delivery if fundamental research can find the price deviation, then the future price run path can be determined wrong market prices will certainly return to the correct technical analysis The technical school is to admit that the market is always right, because the technical school is to follow the market price, rely on following the trend to make money, so the market up you do up, up is right; market down you do down, down is right and fundamental analysis is actually to admit that the market is going to make mistakes, and the more wrong, the process of correcting the error will allow the discovery of this error the more people earn Stanley Crowe in his book "Crowe In his book "Crowe on Investment Strategy" told a true story that happened to him: he found that the price of sugar fell to lower than the price of sacks containing sugar, into the long sugar, however, the market is crazy to continue to fall, so that he burst after the price of sugar began to rise wildly Crowe told this story is to illustrate: only the chart is true, do not listen to any news about the fundamentals, the price is falling You can not do more, even if that price is so unreasonable, the market believes in: what exists is reasonable! In fact, this is the core thinking of the technical analysis school: the market is always right! Thats why the technicalists will make the action of following the market However, lets think about this from another perspective the price of sugar fell to cheaper than the sacks containing sugar, this price is obviously unreasonable price on the spot, Crow was actually found at the time the market has made a mistake, the reason why he will burst, it is because he did not understand at the time that speculative trading is in the third dimension of emotions and dreams of the fourth dimension on the unfolding This truth we imagine that he was not doing futures, but hoarding sugar, how did it turn out? Must have made a fortune! Because in fact the market eventually corrected this mistake, the price of white sugar in the future someday began to return to a reasonable price a flying start in the old days of good warfare, first for the invincible, in order to wait for the enemy can win, can not win in their own, can win in the enemy, so said, win can be known but not for a period of time the market is the battlefield, how to make themselves invincible, how to find certainty in the uncertainty, which is a higher level of the competition attached: "The The futures market has been circulating a view that the market is always right, many people are used to putting it on the lips but do not understand its connotation if the market is always right, then why the market price changes? Why do we still have to buy and sell? In fact, the correctness of anything is the premise and frame of reference, correctness is relative to the existence of the wrong then the market is always correct premise and frame of reference is what? Is relative to the price of your previous order now the market price is always correct, so if the previous position has a loss, do not argue with the market, the stop loss or to stop loss then if we change a reference system? For example, the 1601 contract, the current market price relative to the price at the time of delivery of the 1601 contract is correct? We are almost sure that it is wrong. This is the reason why people participate in the market now, to express different views on the price of the futures contract at the time of delivery, with their own capital as the weight, and eventually the correct judgment of the people to gain profits through a large number of transactions to derive a relatively rational forward price to guide enterprises in the medium and long-term production arrangements, raw material reserves and sales plans. In a fundamental sense, the ultimate winner of any species should be the one who can fully grasp the information of supply and demand of a certain species, and understand the macroeconomic impact on the species, and can predict the forward price range of the species earlier and more accurately than the majority of market participants. If you are able to judge the correct range of prices at contract expiration and only enter the market when the current market price is outside the range, this is looking for the markets mistakes, which is to win first and seek war later, only to leave the market when the correct range of your judgment changes or when the market price returns to the correct range. First for not win, in order to wait for the enemy can win, not win in their own, can win in the enemy, so said, win can be known and not for Attachment: Xiao Li throws knife: 1, technical analysis and fundamental analysis are trading basis, not combined with trading ideas and money management words, are the art art between the length of the fight also meaningless 2, the market is correct or not is not important, and from the static requirements, the market is never wrong the reason why the emphasis on the market is correct because our wallets must be correct
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