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Central bank control over foreign exchange rates

The ever- cashbackforexprofitcalculatorcreasing number of international transactions requires a smooth settlement process, which involves converting one cashback forex into another The foreign cashback forex calculator Online market primarily serves this purpose However, the unevenness in the dem cashbackforexcalculatorOnline and supply of currencies in the international arena causes the exchange cashbackforexpipcalculators of currencies to fluctuate continuously Since exchange rates are directly related to the stability of the economy, the central bank of any country will closely monitor the In this regard, central banks play an important role in influencing exchange rates by changing interest rates and indirectly (on the basis of high investment returns) encouraging traders to buy the respective national currencies by increasing the central banks interest rates, which drives the appreciation of the respective central banks currency against other currencies. Before discussing these tactics, it is necessary to understand the basic foreign exchange mechanism and the impact of foreign exchange rates on the economy. When a countrys currency exchange rate is bad, the value of goods that can be purchased with each dollar of currency will drop dramatically, which will quickly deplete the countrys foreign exchange resources. When a countrys currency exchange rate strengthens the local economy gains because overseas customers need to spend more to buy dollar-equivalent services (tourism, banking, etc.) c. Technology transfer A country with a high exchange rate has stronger bargaining power In addition, it is easier for the country to purchase high-end technology without having to deplete its foreign reserves d. International remittances & capital inflows A country with a strong currency does not default on its debt Therefore, investors have no problem in receiving dividend/profit remittances This encourages capital inflows, which in turn strengthens the local economy Different ways of expressing exchange rates Exchange rates refer to the value of one countrys currency converted into another countrys currency Exchange rates are expressed in various ways as follows: a. Nominal and real exchange rates Exchange rates set by the controlling foreign exchange power (e.g., the central bank) are called nominal exchange rates Exchange rates set by market demand and supply are called The real exchange rate The actual exchange rate revolves around the nominal exchange rate b. Spot and forward exchange rates The exchange rate used for immediate delivery of a currency to a buyer is called the spot rate On the other hand, the exchange rate used for delivery of a currency at a future date is called the forward rate c. Single and multiple exchange rates Usually, there is only a single exchange rate for a countrys currency but in rare cases, a country may take one, two, or even three For example, a country may use two different exchange rates for exports and imports. d. Buying and selling rates Dealers (banks, financial institutions) operating in the foreign exchange market offer customers a lower and a higher rate for selling and buying a countrys currency The lower rate is the buying rate, while the higher rate is the selling rate. e. Favorable and unfavorable rates If a countrys If the exchange rate of a currency rises relative to the currency of another country, then it is called a favorable exchange rate and vice versa. f. Official and unofficial exchange rate It is the rate that is predetermined at the time of execution of an international transaction If a cross-border transaction is executed at an exchange rate determined by forces other than market forces, then the rate is called an unofficial exchange rate. g. Fixed and floating exchange rate If the exchange rate of a currency is artificially maintained at a If the exchange rate of a currency is artificially maintained at a predetermined level through intervention or otherwise, then it is called a fixed exchange rate If the exchange rate of a currency is allowed to be determined by market forces, then it is called a floating exchange rate How is the exchange rate determined? Over time, economists and think tanks have proposed three theories for determining foreign exchange rates, which are: a. Mint parity theory This theory is based on the gold standard A country on the gold standard also expresses its currency in gold or converts its currency into gold at a fixed exchange rate In addition, the countrys currency also has a fixed exchange rate relationship with the currencies of other countries on the gold standard (mint parity) At present, no country on the gold standard is following the gold standard. Therefore, the theory of mint parity has lost its meaning. b. Purchasing power parity theory This theory was first argued in writing in 1992 by the Swedish economist Professor Gustav Kassel, who proposed this theory for paper money, stating that the exchange rate between two currencies should match the coefficient of their respective international purchasing power. Although this theory applies to all currencies, it ignores other external factors that can affect the exchange rate (speculation, capital inflows/outflows, etc.) c. Balance of Payments Theory or Demand and Supply Theory According to the current modern exchange rate theory, which is widely accepted and standard, the exchange rate is equivalent to the demand and supply of foreign currency. When the balance of payments is in surplus, demand and the corresponding exchange rate will fall due to smooth foreign exchange flows. Flaws in the assumptions Why do exchange rates change frequently? Several factors lead to frequent changes in the exchange rate: gradual or sudden changes in the demand and supply of foreign currency, changes in the volume of imports and exports, revisions in a countrys monetary policy, capital inflows and outflows from industry, stock markets, etc., changes in economic conditions (inflation, deflation), geopolitical changes in the banking sector, changes in the average household income, which indirectly affects the overall sentiment of the exchange rate, speculation, great technological progress Exchange rates are gradually affected in a positive way The meaning of exchange controls Exchange controls refer to the process of restricting transactions involving foreign currency by the government or central bank When exchange controls are in effect, market forces are unable to operate freely because of the imposed restrictions Therefore, the exchange rate is different from the exchange rate in a free market Usually, weaker economies tend to use exchange controls with the aim of achieving economic stability In fact, the International Monetary Fund There is a special article named Article 14 that states that only excessive economies are allowed to implement exchange controls Despite the aforementioned article, in modern times in order to protect the economy from unexpected exchange rate fluctuations, almost all countries use some form or other of exchange controls Characteristics of Exchange Controls When a government or central bank regulates the inflow and outflow of foreign currency, the dominant economic system exhibits the following characteristics: all international transactions involving international transactions involving foreign currencies remain centralized the central bank still maintains a monopoly on buying and selling currencies in the foreign exchange market foreign exchange brokers must obtain a license from the central bank in order to operate the central bank has the right to prioritize foreign exchange allocations for different debts the central bank will purchase remittances through various international transactions (exports and all repatriations) and pay domestic currencies the central bank determines and manages the official exchange rate importers must provide relevant documents to purchase foreign exchange from the central bank The necessity of foreign exchange control is theoretically not limited to the rise or fall of the currency on paper. Therefore, unfavorable fluctuations in the exchange rate will lead to a runaway and unstable economy. When a countrys currency is strong (exchange rate rises) there are positive effects (increased productivity, lower unemployment, high economic growth, incentives to reduce consumption, etc.,). However, if a countrys currency becomes stronger due to speculation, there is no positive effect. The Swiss franc is a classic example of a speculation-driven currency. The problems in the United States and the European region tempt investors to Switzerland, which is considered to be a safe area for investment. As a result, the Swiss franc is often seen to be fundamentally overvalued and the central bank should be discouraged from preventing the currency from falling into recession. A weak currency has a negative impact on the economy. It will have a negative impact on imports and capital flows. Therefore, no responsible central bank would allow its currency to fall at will. With a weak currency, no country in history has ever successfully emerged from a recession. Considering the above factors, it is very important to closely monitor exchange rate movements, if necessary, to maintain healthy economic growth. In general, all the methods of exchange rate control used by central banks can be summarized in two categories. They are: a. Direct and indirect methods if the exchange rate is directly affected by the exchange control error. If the change in the exchange rate is ultimately influenced by other factors, it is called indirect. b. Unilateral, bilateral and multilateral methods Unilateral methods are measures taken by the central bank of a country without taking into account the opinions of other countries. Bilateral and multilateral approaches are measures taken by two or more countries to control the exchange rate. Unilateral approach a. Foreign exchange intervention or pegging is a form of soft intervention in the market according to which a countrys central bank will block its exchange rate to its desired level in the market if there is speculation that drives the price too high or too low. If the central bank buys money to raise the exchange rate it is called a peg. Similarly, a currency is considered pegged when the central bank speculates in the market to lower the exchange rate. It should be noted that speculation will not lead to a constant trend over time. b. Foreign currency exchange restrictions By controlling the demand for and supply of currency, a countrys central bank can influence the exchange rate. The following measures seem to be widely taken to keep the exchange rate under control: i. Freezing of accounts where foreigners bank accounts are frozen. If necessary, the central bank may even transfer all the funds in the frozen account to a separate account. However, this would have a very bad impact on the countrys policy and lead to a continuous negative impact on the economy as a whole. ii. This is done in order to control the flow of capital in the country. It can be interpreted as rationing according to price rather than demand. This system is complex and can cause more problems for the central bank. iii. Individuals or groups are not allowed to hold foreign currency. Only urgent needs were considered. iv. The Exchange Equalization Account (EEA) controlled short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. The Bank of England, from the gold standard, established a fund called the Exchange Equalization Account in 1932 to protect the pound from adverse fluctuations in the exchange rate. This measure was later adopted by the United States (Exchange Stabilization Fund) and other European countries including Switzerland and France. Bilateral and multilateral methods a. Payment agreements Under this system, borrowers and lenders reach payment agreements to overcome delays in international trade settlements. The agreement specifies the way in which exchange rate fluctuations are to be controlled. Usually, the methods include, but are not limited to, controlling the rationing of foreign currencies. b. Settlement agreement This exchange rate control measure is implemented by two or more countries that have signed the agreement. According to the agreement, the exporter and the importer will receive their income and expenses in their own currency, respectively. For this purpose, the settlement account of the central bank is used. As a result, the need for foreign currency was avoided, thus reducing exchange rate fluctuations. This method was adopted by Germany and Switzerland in 1930. c. Stagnation agreement is a system in which the central bank converts short-term borrowing into long-term borrowing by suspending it. This process provides sufficient time for payments to be made. The downward pressure on the exchange rate is eliminated. This method was implemented by Germany in 1931. d. Compensation agreement This process consists of a barter agreement between two countries. One country would be a pure exporter and the other a pure importer. Exports and imports were of the same value. Therefore, the demand for foreign currency is avoided, thus preserving the stability of the exchange rate. e. Suspension of transfers Under this system, the central bank suspends all payments to the bond country. The debtor should pay the central bank in its own currency and will improve the national currency in the foreign exchange reserves in general. Indirect way a. Regulation of bank interest rates When the bank interest rates increase, the inflow of funds (through foreign investors) increases. This will increase the demand for the domestic currency and push the exchange rate higher. The opposite is true when interest rates fall. Thus, when necessary, the central bank indirectly controls the exchange rate by changing the bank interest rate. b. International trade regulation When the trade balance becomes unfavorable, the government can use a series of measures to restrict imports (severe terms, policy changes, quota systems and additional tariffs). At the same time, exports can be encouraged (international trade fairs, subsidies, etc.). This will eventually weaken imports and encourage exports. The net gain in foreign exchange reserves will significantly increase the exchange rate. c. Gold import policy Except for a few countries in Africa, almost all other countries are pure gold importers. The exchange rate can be influenced by restricting (raising import tariffs) gold imports. India often uses this approach and imports about 700 tons of gold per year. When imports are reduced, foreign reserves increase which leads to a better exchange rate. Practical examples of major central banks intervening in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the exchange rate when the form requires it. Below is a partial history of exchange rate intervention by central banks around the world. The history of major central bank interventions in currency fluctuations Year Currency Central Bank Interventions Nature Reasons 1978-79 $ Fed purchases high oil prices, lowering payment balances, high inflation 1980-81 $ Fed sells strong dollar hinders exports 1985 $ Fed sells (shortly after Plaza Accord) strong dollar 1987 $ Fed purchases (shortly after Louvre Accord) strong dollar Weakness, worsening economy 1988-90$ Fed sell (after G7 meeting) dollar strong 1991-92$ Fed buy ($2.5B) & sell ($750mill) Gulf War - dollar weakness 1994-95$ Fed buy (with European and Japanese banks) post Gulf War dollar weakness 1998 Yen BOJ buying (backed by Fed) Yen weakness touches US-Japan 144 price prompting BOJ intervention. 1999-2000 Yen BOJ direct selling (16 times). Through the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Yen strength (108Y to US$1). Failed due to continued yen strength (102Y to $1) 2000 Euro ECB (with Fed and BoJ) Euro fell to record low (0.86 to USD– down 30% since launch of Euro in 1999).2001 Yen BoJ sell (with ECB and Fed). Yen strength hindered exports. 2002 yen BOJ selling BOJ selling yen to stop further weakness in the dollar, hitting a seven-month low (121.5Y to the dollar). 2003 yen BOJ selling (buying dollars and euros) a record year 20 trillion yen intervention to stop the dollar (the yen remained strong since 115Y to 107Y to the dollar) Continued weakness of the yen in 2004 the Bank of Japan sold 14 trillion yen in 47 days. To aid the weak yen, the Treasury also sold 5 trillion worth of foreign currency bonds to the BOJ. 2007 NZD sold NZD (hitting 22 year highs) fundamentally overvalued (demand for high yielding currencies strengthened NZD) 2009 CHF sold by the Swiss central bank (bought francs at 1.54 per euro) Swiss central bank sold francs and bought euros to weaken the franc (traded at 1.4576 per euro) 2010 CHF Swiss central bank sells (weakens the Swiss franc against the euro) The Swiss franc touches a peak of 1.40 against the euro amid increased attention from economic experts. 2011 CHF Swiss central bank sells (supports the euro) Begins to depreciate to keep the Swiss economy competitive and avoid deflation. 2015 CHF Swiss central bank no longer supports the euro. (effectively not pegging the Swiss franc) The Swiss central bank has accumulated a total of 480 billion in foreign exchange reserves, which constitute 70% of the countrys GDP. The Swiss franc depreciated by 12% against the euro. The evolution of exchange rate controls in important countries Brazils "crawling peg" system was used from 1967 to 1990 (except for a brief period of exchange rate fixing in 19816) to ensure that exports were competitive. The central bank created new currencies (Cruzeiro, Cruzado, NovoCruzado) to cope with high coin inflation. Since 1990, the Central Bank has adopted a system based on floating exchange rates (less bank intervention). However, inflation has continued to rise. At the same time, the central bank continued to introduce new currencies (Cruzeiro, CruzeiroReal, Real). The central bank abolished all the failed approaches adopted and adopted a fully-fledged independent floating exchange rate system in 1999, with the currency crisis. Chinas currency has undergone a major transformation in the last four years. The Peoples Bank of China adopted a dual-track liberalized monetary policy in 1978. Under this policy, only residents of the country were allowed to use the RMB while non-residents should use foreign exchange certificates. As the economy grew, the Chinese government slowly switched to an exchange system (currently without a capital account) over the next 10 years (1980-1990). Until 2005, the currency remained pegged to the US dollar. Since 2006, the RMB has been allowed to fluctuate within a small range of exchange rates determined by a basket of world currencies. By the second half of 2012, with the measures taken by the Chinese government, the RMB started to fluctuate within a range of 8% of its real value. It is currently in the list of top 10 traded currencies. In India, until 1973, the central bank (Reserve Bank of India) kept the rupee to the British pound. Since 1975 forward, a controlled floating exchange rate system, linked to the currency basket (the main trading partner), was followed. The increase in the trade deficit led the Reserve Bank of India to abolish the rupee in 1991. The RBI also adopted an open exchange rate management system, following a dual exchange rate (efficient market). Since 1993, a single market-determined exchange rate has been adopted. Bank Negara Malaysia (the central bank of Malaysia) used the US dollar instead of the British pound and established an effective exchange rate in 1972 due to currency intervention. A year later, the central bank implemented an effective exchange rate on a controlled floating basis. In order to maintain the consistency of the exchange rate and to protect the economy from external turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia started using an effective exchange rate calculated on the basis of an undisclosed currency blue. With the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the currency depreciated sharply. In order to avoid further weakening of the currency, the current system was abolished and a fixed exchange rate (3.80 ringgit to 1 US dollar) was implemented. When China floated its currency in 2005, Malaysia followed suit within an hour. Most of South Africas exchange rate controls have been taken by external pressure. The first exchange rate control was implemented in 1961, when the capital account deteriorated. Under this control, the repatriation of proceeds from securities owned by non-residents was not allowed. In 1978, the Financial Rand System was introduced. The SARB (South African Reserve Bank) abolished the non-resident exchange controls in 1983 but reintroduced them 2 years later. There is a dual system of random floating exchange rates, including a commercial rate based on current account transactions, and a financial rate based on capital account transactions. Both currency types were based on the floating system, however, the financial Rand was traded at a discount to the commercial Rand. 10 years later (1995), all exchange controls for non-residents were abolished. In addition, private investors were allowed to invest abroad. Initially, the amount was limited to R200k but gradually increased to R2m. In Venezuela, with the mass protests that overthrew the Venezuelan government in 2003, the CADIVI (Commission for the Regulation of Currency Exchange) imposed mandatory exchange controls to avoid capital outflows from the country. Under this system, both private and public entities are forced to sell and buy foreign currency (USD) through CADIVI. Even the Venezuelan Ministry of Petroleum (PDVSA), the main source of foreign currency, does not have the right to keep the remittances received from the export of oil and gas. The exchange rate was initially fixed at BsF 4.28/BsF 4.30 to the dollar. Since efforts to resolve the currency crisis were unsuccessful, the Venezuelan government issued another currency, called Bolivar Fuertes (VEF) and officially pegged it at a higher price against the dollar. Not helping the economic woes, the value of the Bolivar decreased while the demand for the dollar increased. In April 2013, the government adopted the previous exchange control policy and implemented a complementary currency management system. The currency was devalued by 45%. In order to protect the Swiss economy from the European credit crisis, in 2011, the SNB (Swiss Central Bank) announced that it would no longer allow the Swiss franc to appreciate against other currencies, especially the euro. The SNB also stated that it would buy unlimited amounts of other currencies to keep the Swiss franc competitive. The unanticipated devaluation (& pegged to the euro) prompted the Swiss franc to fall by more than 9% in 15 minutes. Four years later, on January 15, 2015, once again, there was unanticipated volatility and the Swiss central bank did not peg the Swiss franc against the euro. The volatility caused great panic not only among retail traders but also among major commercial institutions. Several banks and hedge funds lost hundreds of millions of dollars in a matter of minutes. Even reputable Forex brokers were affected. The Swiss central bank explained that the measure was taken due to fears of hyperinflation in Switzerland, the ECBs $1.1 trillion stimulus package & devalued the Swiss franc against the euro and the Indian rupee (India is an important importer of Swiss products). What is troubling is that there is no tiny hint of the upcoming decision. Perhaps the only one who guessed it was (in his book titled StreetSmarts) Jim Rogers, the well-known futures investor and founder of the Quantum Fund. There are 66 countries, including Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, that have pegged exchange rates. There is also a story about South Korea, which was forced to switch from a pegged exchange rate mechanism to a free floating exchange rate mechanism, due to the pressure on the Won (South Korean currency) caused by Thailands sudden switch to a floating exchange rate mechanism. On the other hand, the Iranian rial is a typical example of a government-run currency scheme. When the Iranian government lost its ability (due to sanctions) to keep the price of the rial high through the use of oil dollars, the currency began to depreciate significantly. The Iranian currency depreciated from 6,875 to the US dollar to 35,000 in 30 years, with most of the depreciation occurring in the last five years. The advantages of exchange rate control lead to stability of the exchange rate. The ability to correct the payment balance deficit. Prevention of depletion of gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves. Prevents capital flight. Promotes stable economic growth Disadvantages of exchange rate controls indirectly increase administrative corruption. Creates misunderstandings in major economies. Disappointment of multinational companies due to the huge commitments made. In general, a fundamental imbalance is created. The overall decline in international trade turnover. Exchange controls can be considered as a bilateral war. There may be cases where exchange controls are temporarily necessary. However, abrupt and hasty decisions can send the countrys economy into financial chaos. History shows that only those countries that adopted free exchange control mechanisms avoided financial crises and achieved significant economic growth in the early years. 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